全球疫情扩散,但尚未对经济修复造成明显拖累,经济复苏趋势延续。国内三季报公布完毕,盈利增速延续回升;同时十四五规划建议落地,聚焦高质量发展(科技创新、产业升级、深化改革、双循环等);短期市场环境中性偏积极,风险偏好回升下市场有望延续反弹。

  但中期来看,经济复苏盈利回升趋势较为确定,宏观政策也逐步正常化,流动性收缩或将抑制估值扩张,A股将面临盈利和估值的权衡,市场仍大概率维持震荡格局。

  行业配置上,考虑到经济复苏和流动性变化,景气度底部回升和业绩边际改善幅度较大的低估值顺周期板块(金融、周期龙头等)业绩和估值攻守兼备的性价比更高,另外高景气确定性较强并能有效消化估值的一些成长方向仍值得重点关注,如新能源/新能源车、半导体等。其他细分方向建议关注养殖后周期(动保、饲料等)、航空、农产品等。

  风险提示

  1)年底中央经济工作会议释放宏观政策或监管政策明显收紧信号;2)美国政局混乱或中美摩擦加剧;

  风险提示:本材料仅供参考,非基金宣传推介材料。上述观点仅为当前观点,不代表对未来的预测,不构成任何投资建议,也不构成未来中信保诚基金旗下产品进行投资决策之必然依据。如因为发布日后的各种因素变化而不再准确或失效,中信保诚基金不承担更新义务。本材料中的信息均来源于已公开的资料,中信保诚基金对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证。若本材料转载第三方报告或资料,转载内容仅代表该第三方观点,不代表中信保诚基金立场。本刊物版权归中信保诚基金所有,未获得事先书面授权,任何人不得对本刊物内容进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为“中信保诚基金”,且不得对本刊物中的任何内容进行有违原意的删节和修改。基金不保证一定盈利,也不保证最低收益和本金安全。投资前请认真阅读招募说明书和基金合同等法律文件。投资有风险,选择需谨慎。

责任编辑:石秀珍 SF183


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